Impacto de los factores psicológicos y fisiológicos en la predicción del rendimiento en resistencia (Impact of psychological and physiological factors on endurance performance prediction)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.47197/retos.v61.106874Palabras clave:
carrera, modelización, vo2max, aislamiento, activación, psicologíaResumen
El rendimiento en los eventos resistencia es un fenómeno multifactorial complejo, por lo que deben considerarse diversas variables para proporcionar una predicción precisa del tiempo en las carreras. Hasta la fecha se han utilizado las variables fisiológicas como principales predictores, ignorando el potencial predictivo de otros factores como las variables psicológicas. El objetivo principal de este estudio fue proporcionar una ecuación para predecir el rendimiento en 10K, utilizando tanto factores fisiológicos como psicológicos como variables explicativas. Participaron en el estudio 13 corredores varones (Peso 68,06 ± 18,73 kg; Altura 174,31 ± 5,39 cm; edad 39,5 ± 8,5 años; 57,34 ± 5,03 ml - kg -min VO2MAX). Se estableció un modelo de regresión múltiple utilizando un enfoque de regresión por pasos basado en mínimos cuadrados ordinarios. Tras comprobar las posibles colinealidades, los resultados mostraron el VVO2MAX (β=-1,03), activación (β=0,17) y Aislamiento (β=0,19), como mejores predictores del tiempo en la prueba de 10K. La regresión resultante mostró un coeficiente de determinación (R2) de 0,98 y RMSE= 50,30 s. VVO2MAX fue el mejor predictor del rendimiento en 10K. Sin embargo, los factores psicológicos, como la activación y el aislamiento, explican la varianza adicional. Un mayor VVO2MAX, una menor activación y un mayor aislamiento podrían permitir un mejor rendimiento en la carrera de 10K.
Palabras clave: Carrera; modelización; VO2MAX; aislamiento; activación; psicología.
Abstract. Athletic performance is a complex multifactorial phenomenon, therefore several variables should be considered to provide an accurate prediction of time in races. However, physiological variables have usually been used as the main predictors, ignoring the predictive potential of other factors such as psychological variables. The main aim of this study was to provide an equation for predicting performance at 10K, using both physiological and psychological factors as explanatory variables. 13 male runners participated in the study (weight 68.06 ± 18.73 kg; height 174.31 ± 5.39 cm; age 39.5 ± 8.5 years; 57.34 ± 5.03 ml - kg -min VO2MAX). A multiple regression model was established using a stepwise regression approach based on Ordinary Least Squares (OLS). After check possible collinearities, results showed as better predictors of the time at 10K event: VVO2MAX (β=-1.03), Arousal (β=0.17) and Isolation (β=0.19). The resulting regression showed a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.98 and RMSE= 50.30 s. VVO2MAX was the best predictor of the 10K performance. However, psychological factors, such as Arousal and Isolation, explain the addition variance. A higher VVO2MAX, a lower Arousal and a higher Isolation might allow better athletic performance in the 10K race.
Keywords: Running; modeling; VO2MAX; isolation; activation; psychology.
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