La criticalidad del juego en el fútbol juvenil masculino: Efectos situacionales y de la edad en el período de gol en los campeonatos nacionales portugueses (Game criticality in male youth football: Situational and age-related effects on the goal-scoring period in Portuguese national championships)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.47197/retos.v46.94275Palabras clave:
gol, momentos críticos, variables contextuales, análisis temporal, fútbolResumen
La investigación cruzando los efectos de variables situacionales con el análisis temporal de goles en fútbol escasea, particularmente en el fútbol juvenil. Por eso, este estudio pretendió (1) analizar los efectos de localización del partido, marcador, calidad del equipo, criticalidad de los goles y grupo de edad en los períodos del partido donde se marcan estos goles en el fútbol juvenil masculino, y (2) examinar si el grupo de edad (Sub-17, Sub-19, Sub-23) influye en el surgimiento de momentos críticos en partidos de campeonatos nacionales portugueses. La muestra consistió en 2,591 goles anotados en estas competiciones juveniles durante la temporada 2019/2020. Las pruebas de Chi-cuadrado revelaron que la localización del partido, el marcador, la criticalidad del gol y el grupo de edad se asociaron significativamente con el período de gol. Durante los primeros tiempos, se anotaron más goles (1) jugando en casa, (2) con los equipos empatados o perdiendo por un gol (circunstancias críticas) y (3) en Sub-17. Según un modelo de regresión logística multinomial las posibilidades de gol en el sexto período (vs el primero) fueron significativamente menores jugando en casa, y en Sub-17 y Sub-19. Los equipos Sub-23 tuvieran más probabilidades de marcar en el último período, independientemente de la criticalidad del gol. Sin embargo, la interacción entre calidad del equipo y grupo de edad sugiere que los equipos Sub-17 y Sub-19 son más propensos a marcar en períodos de juego posteriores cuando se equipara la habilidad del equipo. Estos hallazgos permiten a los entrenadores mejorar la preparación táctica, física y psicológica para las competiciones dependiendo de la edad.
Palabras clave: gol, momentos críticos, variables contextuales, análisis temporal, fútbol.
Abstract. Research crossing the effects of situational variables with the temporal analysis of goals scored in football is scarce, particularly in youth football. Hence, the present study aimed to (1) analyse the effects of match location, match status, team quality, goal criticality, and age group on match periods in which goals are scored in male youth football, and (2) examine whether the age group (U17, U19, and U23) influences the emergence of critical moments in matches from the Portuguese national championships. The sample consisted of 2,591 goals scored in the U17, U19, and U23 Portuguese national championships during the 2019/2020 season. Chi-square tests revealed that match location, match status, goal criticality, and age group were significantly associated with the goal-scoring period. During the first halves, more goals were scored (1) when playing at home, (2) when teams were tied or losing by one goal (critical circumstances) and (3) by U17 teams. A multinomial logistic regression model revealed that the chances of scoring in the sixth period (vs the first) significantly decreased when playing at home, and in U17 and U19 matches. The U23 teams were more likely to score in the last period regardless of goal criticality. However, the interaction effect of team quality x age group suggests that U17 and U19 teams are more prone to score in later match periods when team ability is equated. These findings enable coaches to improve the tactical, physical, and psychological preparation for competitive youth matches depending on the target age group.
Keywords: goal, critical moments, contextual variables, temporal analysis, soccer.
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