New Scenery to Demoscopic sector: Challenges and Peculiarities

Abstract

The fast change of bipartisanship from concentrating three out of four votes to get little more than one in two in a single legislature has meant removing the ground on which pre-electoral polls have worked during the previous thirty years. Ground that passes from a stable to a changing and hesitant voter. From a frame formed by a single axis —right/left— to a new frame in which several dimensions cross. The scenery for making estimates is another, the game is also another. However, Spanish demoscopic activity only knows the rules of a game that is no longer on the market. As with the videogame market, the new edition no longer applies to the previous machine model, so a new device is required: a new methodology for estimating.