The Social Imaginary of Real Estate Property and its Incidence on the Formation of Speculative Bubbles in Spain (2004-2010)
Keywords:
Transacciones inmobiliarias, burbuja, imaginario social de la propiedadAbstract
In this paper, using quarterly data from housing transactions (number and value) from the Ministry
of Housing, the formation of real estate bubble in Spain is analyzed. Beyond the form of the
unbalanced real estate markets, is the analysis of the components that affect their formation. How
the social imaginary of property expressed by the consumption theory, based on permanent income
and life cycle, affect the formation of such a bubble. A multiple linear regression model is built to
determine the evolution of both supply and demand, using as independent variables data
employment, unemployment (by gender), GNP, and inflation.
The factors behind the purchase preference are identified. The models depict a bubble formed by
the evolution of women employment in the x (volume) axis, and the economic growth in the y (price)
axis. A final reflexion is laid on the social consequences of market evolution in recent years with
rising unemployment and economic recession.
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Copyright (c) 2012 Anna García Masiá

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