Trade openness, production shocks and externalities with space-time cycles in economic growth by state in Mexico, 1980-2018

Abstract

This research analyses the relationship of trade liberalization with the conditions in which production shocks cause externalities with space-time cycles in economic growth by federal entity of Mexico. For this purpose, the methodology of STARMA models is used in economic growth by federal entity, which is explained by the behavior of the regions of influence according to the territorial neighbors of the first y second order. With simulations of the models, it is verified that multiple productive shocks cause externalities with space-time cycles in all the states. Meanwhile, individual production shocks, such as the cases of Mexico City and the State of Mexico, show that the greatest externalities are observed in secondorder territorial neighbors.