University admission scores as predictor of academic performance in the first year of university: Education VS Social Services Oriented Degrees

Abstract

Several research studies have shown that admission scores seem to be a good predictor of academic performance during the undergraduate degree. It is a fact that the first year of the undergraduate program is the one in which most students drop out of the program. Considering this idea, the general objective of this study is to identify the access profile (previous academic performance) and predict the future performances of the students at the Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM). The study involves first year students who enter the Education Programs, as well as those who enter Degrees with a Social Service Orientation. To address this objective, a secondary analysis of the UCM census’ data in the 2018/2019 academic year is carried out where the total sample is 2018 students. Several regression models are considered aiming to determine the effect of previous academic performance on the success rate (% of ECTS credits passed) at the end of the first academic year. The results show that the Education Degrees where admission scores have an impact on the success rate are those related to Primary Education. Furthermore, a differentiated profile was observed between Education Degrees compared to Degrees with a Social Service Orientation when explaining the success rate in the first year. In  light of  these results, it can be concluded that admission scores are a predictor of the academic performance achieved in the first year of the degree program, affecting in a differently students who pursue Education Degrees versus Social Services Oriented Degrees.