Spatial patterns of crime in Ecuador: analyzing the impact of judicial systems and geographic elements

Abstract

This study investigates the spatial patterns of crime in Ecuador and their driving factors, paying special attention to the judicial system's impact. Drawing on data from 218 cantons between 2015 and 2021, we applied exploratory spatial data analysis and spatial econometric models for cross section data and panel data. Our analysis revealed discernible clusters of both high and low crime rates, as well as isolated areas of crime (islands of crime) and safety (islands of non-crime). The findings offer a detailed overview of the crime situation in Ecuador and emphasize the significance of geographic elements in formulating effective crime prevention measures. e analysis also identifies the shift in crime dynamics over time, indicating that cantons typically experiencing low crime rates can evolve into higher crime areas, hinting at a contagion effect within spatial clusters. The study further underscores the critical influence of the judicial system on crime prevalence, where systemic inefficiencies such as case backlogs and a high proportion of unsentenced inmates are associated with rising crime. For policymakers, these insights underscore the necessity of tailoring interventions to the specific contexts and dynamics of each region, considering both the local conditions and the broader surrounding crime environment.