Tipo de interés y oferta de vivienda nueva
Keywords:
Tipo de interés, crédito a la vivienda, oferta de vivienda, ciclos de la construcción, mercado residencial, mercado hipotecario, modelos económicosAbstract
El objetivo perseguido con este trabajo es el de analizar el efecto de las variaciones del tipo de
interés del crédito a la vivienda sobre la evolución de la construcción de vivienda en España en su etapa más
reciente. Concretamente, justificaremos la condición del tipo de interés como la del principal indicador adelantado
de las viviendas iniciadas a lo largo de los quince últimos años: mediante la elaboración de un modelo
estadístico comprobaremos que la evolución del número de viviendas iniciadas responde, con un desfase
de tres trimestres, a la evolución del tipo de interés. En consecuencia, la información más reciente
relativa al tipo de interés nos permitirá inferir la evolución del número de viviendas iniciadas a tres trimestres
vista, así como establecer escenarios para el medio plazo. Llegaremos a la conclusión de que, aunque a corto
plazo se mantendrá la tendencia creciente (aunque remitiendo), si se confirman las expectativas de subida
de tipos superior a un punto porcentual a lo largo del corriente año, la actual etapa de auge de la construcción
de vivienda en España llegará a su fin antes de que comience el año 2007.
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Copyright (c) 2006 Magdalena Ferrán Aranaz
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