The fall in fertility and the birth deficit in Spain

Abstract

In Spain, since late 70s the total fertility rate has declined to the currently value of about 1.2 children per woman, which is one of the lowest in the world. It is also well known that Spaniards have fewer children than they would wish: the average desired number of children is about 2.2. Thus, the child gap, i.e. the average difference between desired and actual children is, on average, around one child per woman. In recent years the low fertility level and child gap issues have gained growing attention in the public and political debate. The aim of this article is twofold. First, we will try to provide a diagnosis of the fertility decline and the child gap. Assuming a long-term longitudinal perspective we will show how the fertility reduction has come about. Then, for the younger cohort, comparing fertility preferences with the actual number of children, we will identify who is having fewer children than the desired number. The second aim of the paper is to provide an explanation of the two processes. In the conclusion, the implications of the results for public policies are discussed.