Spoiling behavior in international mediation: The fragility of the Syrian process

Abstract

The Syrian mediation process has repeatedly been characterized by its fragility. This fragility does not only stem from its inability to produce tangible results but it also rests on other dimensions such as its instability, the lack of impartiality of its mediation structure, or its lack of representativeness and capacity for action, all of which have been studied more tangentially. The purpose of this article is to determine the explanatory factors of these other dimensions of the fragility of the process. In order to do so, and based on the spoiler literature, it first operationalizes the spoiling behavior, distinguishing violent acts from non-violent ones. In the second place, their impact on the process is analyzed, identifying the relationship between them and fragility. In the third place, the mandates of the four Special Envoys assigned by UN to date (January 2020) are evaluated from this perspective. The results of this research show that the violent spoiling behavior in the Syrian mediation process explains the drastic reactions both by the mediating activity itself (suspension of the observation mission, withdrawal of the mediator or postponement of the opening of talks) and by the intervening parties (withdrawal or suspension of conversations), while non-violent behavior tends to attack the process in a more subtle way, threatening its relevance or impartiality. The most evident consequence is a weak mediation process, that may raise doubts on the ability of international mediation in the face of intractable armed conflicts.