The left turn and the armed forces: ideological convergence and polarization in Latin America

Abstract

This paper analyzes the extent to which ideology has influenced political elite’s trust in the armed forces in Latin America between 1994 and 2018. During this period, which scholars have associated with three political cycles, the armed forces have been one of the most trusted institutions by both the representative elite and the public. We analyze the relationship between political elites’ trust towards the military in 16 parliaments in the region, delving into the dynamics of ideological convergence and polarization throughout this period and particularly during the governments of the new left. Our results show significant differences by ideology in elites’ trust towards the military in most countries, as well as opposite temporal dynamics between groups of countries. In countries such as Brazil, Chile or Uruguay, in which the shift to the left led to the arrival of a moderate left, we observe a process of ideological convergence towards higher levels of trust in the armed forces, while the arrival of a radical left in countries such as Venezuela, Nicaragua or Bolivia, triggered an increase in ideological polarization over the armed forces among the parliamentary elite.