Análisis de datos de panel en ciencia política: ventajas y aplicaciones en estudios electorales

Adrián Pignataro

Resumen


La ciencia política ha recurrido a datos de panel o longitudinales de forma incremental en las últimas décadas. En comparación con datos transversales, las inferencias que se pueden obtener a través de datos de panel son considerablemente más reveladoras; sin embargo, su análisis no debe limitarse al modelo clásico lineal de regresión de mínimos cuadrados ordinarios. Con datos electorales reales y simulaciones, esta nota de investigación demuestra la mayor robustez de los modelos de efectos fijos y efectos aleatorios, así como los problemas con el estimador Arellano-Bond en el caso de paneles cortos en el tiempo, comunes en estudios electorales.


Palabras clave


panel, datos longitudinales, elecciones, simulación Monte Carlo.

Referencias


Achen, Christopher. 2000. «Why Lagged Dependent Variables Can Suppress the Explanatory Power of Other Independent Variables», en Annual Meeting of the Political Methodology Section. American Political Science Association. University of California, Los Angeles.

Alfaro-Redondo, Ronald. 2014. «Lifecycle changes and the activation of habitual voting: The case of Costa Rica», Electoral Studies, 35: 188-199. Disponible en: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2014.06.003.

Anderson, Theodore W. y Cheng Hsiao. 1982. «Formulation and estimation of dynamic models using panel data», Journal of Econometrics, 18: 47-82. Disponible en: https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(82)90095-1.

Arellano, Manuel. 2003. Panel Data Econometrics. New York: Oxford University Press. Disponible en: https://doi.org/10.1093/0199245282.001.0001.

Areallano, Manuel y Stephen Bond. 1991. «Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations», The Review of Economic Studies, 58 (2): 277-297. Disponible en: https://doi.org/10.2307/2297968.

Arellano, Manuel y Olympia Bouver. 1995. «Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models», Journal of Econometrics, 68 (1): 29-51. Disponible en: https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(94)01642-D.

Baltagi, Badi H. 2005. Econometric Analysis of Panel Data. Chichester: John Wiley and Sons.

Bartels, Larry M. 1999. «Panel Effects in the American National Election Studies», Political Analysis, 8 (1): 1-20. Disponible en: https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordjournals.pan.a029802.

Beck, Nathaniel. 2007. «From Statistical Nuisances to Serious Modeling: Changing How We Think About the Analysis of Time-Series–Cross-Section Data», Political Analysis, 15 (2): 97-100. Disponible en: https://doi.org/10.1093/pan/mpm001.

Beck, Nathaniel. 2008. «Time-series Cross-section Methods», en Janet M. Box-Steffensmeier, Henry E. Brady y David Collier, (eds.), The Oxford Handbook of Political Methodology. New York: Oxford University Press.

Beck, Nathaniel y Jonathan N. Katz. 1995. «What to do (and not to do) with Time-Series Cross-Section Data», The American Political Science Review, 89 (3): 634-647. Disponible en: https://doi.org/10.2307/2082979.

Beck, Nathaniel y Jonathan N. Katz. 2004. «Time-Series-Cross-Section Issues: Dynamics», en Annual Meeting of the Society for Political Methodology. Stanford: Stanford University.

Beck, Nathaniel y Jonathan N. Katz. 2011. «Modeling Dynamics in Time-Series–Cross-Section Political Economy Data», Annual Review of Political Science, 14: 331-52. Disponible en: https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-071510-103222.

Blais, André. 2000. To Vote or Not to Vote. The Merits and Limits of Rational Choice Theory. Pittsburgh: University of Pittsburgh Press. Disponible en: https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctt5hjrrf.

Blais, André y Agnieszka Dobrzynksa. 1998. «Turnout in electoral democracies», European Journal of Political Research, 33: 239-261. Disponible en: https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-6765.00382.

Blundell, Richard y Stephen Bond. 1998. «Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models», Journal of Econometrics, 87: 115-143. Disponible en: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(98)00009-8.

Brady, Henry. 2008. «Causation and Explanation in Social Science», en Janet M. Box-Steffensmeier, Henry E. Brady y David Collier (eds.), The Oxford Handbook of Political Methodology. New York: Oxford University Press.

Cancela, João y Benny Geys. 2016. «Explaining voter turnout: A meta-analysis of national and subnational elections», Electoral Studies, 42: 264-275. Disponible en: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2016.03.005.

Castañeda Rodríguez, Víctor Mauricio. 2016. «Una investigación sobre la corrupción pública y sus determinantes», Revista Mexicana de Ciencias Políticas y Sociales, 61 (227): 103-136. Disponible en: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0185-1918(16)30023-X.

Dalton, Russell J. 2000. «The Decline of Party Identifications», en Russell J. Dalton y Martin P. Wattenberg (eds.), Parties without Partisans. Political Change in Advanced Industrial Democracies. New York: Oxford University Press.

De Benedetto, Marco Alberto y Maria De Paola. 2016. «The impact of incumbency on turnout. Evidence from Italian municipalities», Electoral Studies, 44: 98-108. Disponible en: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2016.06.012.

Dettrey, Bryan J. y Leslie A. Schwindt-Bayer. 2009. «Voter Turnout in Presidential Democracies», Comparative Political Studies, 42 (10): 1317-1338. Disponible en: https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414009332125.

Dilliplane Susanna. 2014. «Activation, Conversion, or Reinforcement? The Impact of Partisan News Exposure on Vote Choice?», American Journal of Political Science, 58 (1): 79-94. Disponible en: https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12046.

Doces, John A. 2010. «The Dynamics of Democracy and Direct Investment: An Empirical Analysis», Polity, 42 (3): 329-351. Disponible en: https://doi.org/10.1057/pol.2010.1.

Downs, Anthony. 1957. An Economic Theory of Democracy. New York: Harper.

Elgie, Robert y Iain McMenamin. 2008. «Political Fragmentation, Fiscal Deficits and Political Institutionalisation», Public Choice, 136 (3/4): 255-267. Disponible en: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11127-008-9294-x.

Escobar-Lemmon, Maria y Michelle M. Taylor-Robinson. 2005. «Women Ministers in Latin American Government: When, Where, and Why?», American Journal of Political Science, 49 (4): 829-844. Disponible en: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2005.00158.x.

Fairbrother, Malcolm. 2014. «Two Multilevel Modeling Techniques for Analyzing Comparative Longitudinal Survey Datasets», Political Science Research and Methods, 2 (1): 119-140. Disponible en: https://doi.org/10.1017/psrm.2013.24.

Flannery, Mark J. y Kristine Watson Hankins. 2013. «Estimating dynamic panel models in corporate finance», Journal of Corporate Finance, 19: 1-19. Disponible en: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2012.09.004.

Fornos, Carolina A., Timothy J. Power y James C. Garand. 2004. «Explaining Voter Turnout in Latin America, 1980 to 2000», Comparative Political Studies, 37 (8): 909-940. Disponible en: https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414004267981.

Fortin-Rittberger, Jessica. 2015. «Time-series cross-section», en Henning Best y Christof Wolf (eds.), The SAGE Handbook of Regression Analysis and Causal Inference. London: SAGE.

Franklin, Mark N. 2004. Voter Turnout and the Dynamics of Electoral Competition in Established Democracies since 1945. New York: Cambridge University Press. Disponible en: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511616884.

Franzese, Robert J. 2007. «Multicausality, Context-Conditionaliy, and Endogeneity», en Carles Boix, y Susan C. Stokes (eds.), The Oxford Handbook of Comparative Politics. New York: Oxford University Press.

Frees, Edward W. 2004. Longitudinal and Panel Data. Analysis and Applications in the Social Sciences. New York: Cambridge University Press. Disponible en: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511790928.

García, Mercedes. 2009. Presidentes y Parlamentos: ¿quién controla la actividad legislativa en América Latina? Madrid: Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas.

Garzia, Diego. 2013. «Changing Parties, Changing Partisans: The Personalization of Partisan Attachments in Western Europe», Political Psychology, 34 (1): 67-89. Disponible en: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9221.2012.00918.x.

Geddes, Barbara. 2003. Paradigms and Sand Castles. Theory Building and Research Design in Comparative Politics. Ann Arbor: The University of Michigan Press.

Gelman, Andrew y Jennifer Hill. 2006. Data Analysis Using Regression and Multilevel/Hierarchical Models. New York: Cambridge University Press. Disponible en: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511790942.

Gerring, John. 2012. Social Science Methodology. A Unified Framework. New York: Cambridge University Press.

Geys, Benny. 2006. «Explaining voter turnout: A review of aggregate-level research», Electoral Studies, 25: 637-663. Disponible en: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2005.09.002.

Gujarati, Damodar N. y Dawn C. Porter. 2010. Econometría. México: McGraw Hill.

Hausman, Jerry A. 1978. «Specification Tests in Econometrics», Econometrica, 46 (6): 1251-1271. Disponible en: https://doi.org/10.2307/1913827.

Hsiao, Cheng. 2003. Analysis of Panel Data. New York: Cambridge University Press. Disponible en: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511754203.

Jackman, Robert W. 1987. «Political Institutions and Voter Turnout in the Industrial Democracies», The American Political Science Review, 81 (2): 405-424. Disponible en: https://doi.org/10.2307/1961959.

Keele, Luke y Nathan J. Kelly. 2006. «Dynamic Models for Dynamic Theories: The Ins and Outs of Lagged Dependent Variables», Political Analysis, 14: 186-205. Disponible en: https://doi.org/10.1093/pan/mpj006.

King, Gary, Robert O. Keohane y Sidney Verba. 1994. Designing Social Inquiry. Scientific Inference in Qualitative Research. New Jersey: Princeton University Press.

Kiviet, Jan F. 1995. «On bias, inconsistency, and efficiency of various estimators in dynamic panel data models», Journal of Econometrics, 68: 53-78. Disponible en: https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(94)01643-E.

Lavezzolo, Sebastián. 2008. «Adversidad económica y participación electoral en América Latina, 1980-2000», Revista Española de Ciencia Política, 18: 67-93.

Lewis-Beck, Michael S., Richard Nadeau y Angelo Elias. 2008. «Economics, Party, and the Vote: Causality Issues and Panel Data», American Journal of Political Science, 52 (1): 84-95. Disponible en: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2007.00300.x.

Lipset, Seymour M. 1959. «Some Social Requisites of Democracy: Economic Development and Political Legitimacy», The American Political Science Review, 53 (1): 69-105. Disponible en: https://doi.org/10.2307/1951731.

Lupu, Noam. 2015. «Partisanship in Latin America», en Ryan E. Carlin, Matthew M. Singer y Elizabeth J. Zechmeister (eds.), The Latin American Voter. Pursuing Representation and Accountability in Challenging Contexts. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.

Lynn, Peter. 2009. «Methods for Longitudinal Surveys», en Peter Lynn (ed.), Methodology of Longitudinal Surveys. Chichester: John Wiley and Sons. Disponible en: https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470743874.ch1.

Mooney, Christopher Z. 1997. Monte Carlo Simulation. California: Sage. Disponible en: https://doi.org/10.4135/9781412985116.

Moreno Martínez, Cristina. 2010. «El efecto de la campaña para las elecciones generales españolas de 2008 sobre la información política y la participación electoral de los votantes: ¿se puede hablar de una función de legitimación de las campañas electorales?», Revista Española de Ciencia Política, 24: 53-81.

Norris, Pippa. 2004. Electoral Engineering. Voting Rules and Political Behavior. New York: Cambridge University Press. Disponible en: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511790980.

Nickell, Stephen. 1981. «Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects», Econometrica, 49 (6): 1417-1426. Disponible en: https://doi.org/10.2307/1911408.

Pérez-Liñán, Aníbal. 2001. «Neoinstitutional accounts of voter turnout: moving beyond industrial democracies», Electoral Studies, 20: 281-297. Disponible en: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0261-3794(00)00019-6.

Persson, Torsten y Guido Tabellini. 2003. The Economic Effects of Constitutions. Cambridge: MIT Press.

Pignataro, Adrián. 2014a. «Participación electoral comparada en América Latina: un modelo desde la teoría de elección racional», Revista Derecho Electoral, 17: 154-184.

Pignataro, Adrián. 2014b. Base de datos de elecciones en América Latina (1995-2011) [archivo Excel].

Plümper, Thomas y Vera E. Troeger. 2007. «Efficient Estimation of Time-Invariant and Rarely Changing Variables in Finite Sample Panel Analyses with Unit Fixed Effects», Political Analysis, 15 (2): 124-139. Disponible en: https://doi.org/ 10.1093/pan/mpm002.

Plümper, Thomas, Vera E. Troeger y Philip Manow. 2005. «Panel data analysis in comparative politics: Linking method to theory», European Journal of Political Research, 44: 327-354. Disponible en: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-6765.2005.00230.x.

Plutzer, Eric. 2002. «Becoming a Habitual Voter: Inertia, Resources, and Growth in Young Adulthood», The American Political Science Review, 96 (1): 41-56. Disponible en: https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055402004227.

Powell, G. Bingham. 1986. «American Voter Turnout in Comparative Perspective», The American Political Science Review, 80 (1): 17-43. Disponible en: https://doi.org/10.2307/1957082.

Prior, Markus. 2010. «You’ve Either Got It or You Don’t? The Stability of Political Interest over the Life Cycle», The Journal of Politics, 72 (3): 747-766. Disponible en: https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022381610000149.

Przeworski, Adam. 2007. «Is the Science of Comparative Politics Possible?», en Carles Boix y Susan C. Stokes (eds.), The Oxford Handbook of Comparative Politics. New York: Oxford University Press.

Przeworski, Adam, Michael E. Alvarez, Jose Antonio Cheibub y Fernando Limongi. 2000. Democracy and Development. Political Institutions and Well-Being in the World, 1950-1990. New York: Cambridge University Press. Disponible en: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511804946.

Robinson, William S. 1950. «Ecological Correlations and the Behavior of Individuals», American Sociological Review, 15 (3): 351-357. Disponible en: https://doi.org/10.2307/2087176.

Roodman, David. 2009. «How to do xtabond2: An introduction to difference and system GMM in Stata», The Stata Journal, 9 (1): 86-136.

Sátyro, Natália. 2013. «Institutional constraints, parties and political competition in Brazilian states», Revista de Ciencia Política, 33 (3): 583-605.

Schraufnagel, Scot y Barbara Sgouraki. 2005. «Voter Turnout in Central and South America», The Latin Americanist, 49: 39-69. Disponible en: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1557-203X.2005.tb00064.x.

Seijas Macías, J. Antonio. 2014. «Análisis del grado del ‘Mal-apportionment’ en los parlamentos autonómicos del Estado español», Revista Española de Ciencia Política, 34: 199-221.

Smets, Kaat y Carolien van Ham. 2013. «The embarrassment of riches? A meta-analysis of individual-level research on voter turnout», Electoral Studies, 32: 344-359. Disponible en: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2012.12.006.

Steinbrecher, Markus y Harald Shoen. 2013. «Not all campaign panels are created equal: Exploring how the number and timing of panel waves affect findings concerning the time of voting decision», Electoral Studies, 32: 892-899. Disponible en: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2013.10.004.

Stimson, James A. 1985. «Regression in Space and Time: A Statistical Essay», American Journal of Political Science, 29 (4): 914-947. Disponible en: https://doi.org/ 10.2307/2111187.

Stockemer, Daniel. 2017. «What Affects Voter Turnout? A Review Article/Meta-Analysis of Aggregate Research», Government and Opposition, 52 (4): 698-722. Disponible en: https://doi.org/10.1017/gov.2016.30.

Wansbeek, Tom. 2012. «On the remarkable success of the Arellano-Bond estimator», AENORM, 20 (77): 15-20.

Wawro, Gregory. 2002. «Estimating Dynamic Panel Data Models in Political Science», Political Analysis, 10 (1): 25-48. Disponible en: https://doi.org/10.1093/pan/10.1.25.

Western, Bruce y Simon Jackman. 1994. «Bayesian Inference for Comparative Research», The American Political Science Review, 88 (2): 412-423. Disponible en: https://doi.org/10.2307/2944713.

Wilson, Sven E. y Daniel M. Butler. 2007. «A Lot More to Do: The Sensitivity of Time-Series Cross-Section Analyses to Simple Alternative Specifications», Political Analysis, 15 (2): 101-123. Disponible en: https://doi.org/10.1093/pan/mpl012.

Wooldridge, Jeffrey M. 2010. Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data. Cambridge: The MIT Press.




DOI: https://doi.org/10.21308/recp.46.11

Enlaces refback

  • No hay ningún enlace refback.




Licencia de Creative Commons
Este obra está bajo una licencia de Creative Commons Reconocimiento-NoComercial-SinObraDerivada 4.0 Internacional.

REVISTA ESPAÑOLA DE CIENCIA POLÍTICA. ISSN: 1575-6548 ISSN-e: 2173-9870 | Mapa del sitio