Global Energy Scenarios and Spanish Energy Planning, the Role of Disseminated Consumers: Transport and Residence

Abstract

The article discusses, fi rst, the global energy scenarios in the long run, based on information
provided by major international organizations, and in particular it examines the three scenarios of
WEO 2010, of the IEA, by 2035, “Current Policies”, “New Policies” and “450S”; being this last
scenario, with a peak in oil demand in 2020, which requires a very low increase for primary demand,
a substantial improvement in energy intensity and a signifi cant increase of renewable energies, in
order to achieve the objective of limiting global temperature to 2° C, by 2050. This approach will
coincide with the recent EU initiative “towards a hypo-carbonic economy by 2050”. These global
scenarios will serve as an overall global framework to describe and contrast the objectives of energy
planning in Spain. For this purpose recent developments in energy consumption are analyzed,
always with caution resulting from the economic crisis, and describes energy forecasts which
provide the main tools in energy planning of Spain 2020: “Planning of Gas and Electricity Sector”,
and the “Renewable Energy Plan”, (and other prospective documents). The article concludes with
a review of barriers to achieve energy goals and emission reduction in the residential and transport
sectors in our country.