Territorial Model and Global Change: Middle and Long Term Spanish Scenarios

Abstract

Global Scenarios are set in a framework of global change, which brings a high uncertainty on its
defi nition, but whose infl uence is decisive and growing on the defi nition of Spanish Scenarios for
its Territorial Model, in 2015. It considers alternative forecasts of the dynamics that currently are
setting the direction of socio-economic, territorial and environmental major changes; fi nancial
globalization and fi nancial speculative crises, energy and its infl uence on transport, climate change
and sustainability of the planet, or the responses provided to anticipate and neutralize its negative
effects. It starts with an initial synthesis of information as refl ected in various documents and
articles about what have been the main fundamentals of the 2008 Territorial Model and describes
the foreseeable scenarios for 2015, concluding that in any of the scenarios, the territorial evolution,
with much less intensity, continues the historical patterns for space transformation in Spain, in
recent decades, with the relative concentration of population and activity in historically most
privileged areas, but worsening economic conditions and the territorial cohesion, albeit with
clarifi cations in each of the scenarios considered.