Impact of vaccination against COVID-19 in children aged 5-11 years: A mathematical model

Abstract

On November 25, 2021, the European Medicines Agency (EMA) authorized the presentation of Comirnaty vaccine (Pfizer-Biontech) for children between 5 and 11 years of age. In our country, this vaccination began on December 15, after it was approved by the Public Health Commission. A mathematical model has been developed to evaluate the possible impact of this vaccination and contribute to assessing the risk-benefit balance. The model parameters were adjusted including all those characteristics that may influence the impact of childhood vaccination. The results indicate this vaccination involves a significant reduction in the number of infections, and to a lesser extent in the number of hospitalizations and deaths. This reduction will be more important in a future epidemic wave, when this population has been fully vaccinated. Mathematical models can be very powerful tools to predict the impact of vaccination in different epidemiological situations and help to adjust vaccination programs to be more efficient.