Progress in the Surveillance of Acute Repiratory Infections in Cuba

Abstract

Background: A process of techniques perfection of the edpidemiologic surweillance of morbidity by Acute Respiratory Infections, with the purpose of obtaining a better and more appropiate description of the problem, was carried out. Methods: Amathematical model of Fourier harmonic analysis and an Arima model was applied to the time series of weekly consulting rates for those diseases by age groups and provinces. This allowed to identify the epidemical moments, based on the prediction of expected values and an specific cut-off. Results: The application of this technique made it possible and early and appropriate identilication of an epidemical rise in children of less than 1 year, between July and August of 1988, with the identification of the Respkatory Sincitial Vii as the aethiological agent. In the age-group of 5-14 years, a rise was observed in September, at the beginning of the school-year, and a smaller one between May- June of 1989. In the group age of 65 yearx and more, an epidemical increase took place from July to October. Conclusions: The use of these Tecniques provided new possibilities to make more precise and appropriate recommendations to improve epidemiological surweillance of these diseases at a national level.