Lung Cancer Mortality Trends in Asturias ( 1976 1989)

Abstract

Background The Trend of lung cancer mortality retes in Asturias during 14 years is studied in order to know whether it shows the samc change pattern described for other countrics. Methods: With this purpose. a graphic study of adjusted and age specific rates, including und analysis of birth cohorts, is carried out, and the change average percentage per year and the sex rativ are calculated. Results: In men, thc continuous increasc of mortality stands out (change average percentage per year of age adjusted rates of 4,83% ) with the only exception of the age group of 45-54 years, which had a variation per year of 1,90%, whereas in women, an overall decrease (-1,18%) was observed, with the exception of women older thun 74 years, who showed an increase of 1,73% per year. In men, the cohorts unalysis showed on increasing cohort effect in nll gcncrations :md a decreasing effect in some women. Conclusions: Lung cancer will probably go on increase in Asturias in the next years, among men, whereas in wornen, it seems that a generalized decrease has been iniciated mainly in the youngest ones and the, increase, observed in other countries in previons years, is not evident. Additional studies, focused on the reasons for these trends, will be necessary and basically the following up of the cvolution in nlen of 45-54 years, whose incipient decrense may indicate a change of trend, which facilitates hypotesis generation and verification.