Economic structure and business cycle synchronization

Evidence from Mexico’s states

Abstract

According to recent studies, the growing economic integration between Mexico and the United States, that resulted from the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), heterogeneously transformed the economic structure of Mexico’s states. is study provides evidence that this, in turn, altered the degree and nature of economic synchronization among them. Furthermore, it shows evidence of an increasingly significant positive relationship from 1994 on between economic synchronization and the level of sophistication of states’ economic structures [measured by the Economic Complexity Index (ECI)]. As economic integration increases, it becomes easier for shocks to be transmitted between state economies with similar economic structures, either because their characteristics make them more sensitive to the same kinds of shocks or simply because they are so closely linked. Our results help provide a greater understanding of the states’ economic evolution during the period analyzed.