Snow Avalanches. Present risk and future risk

Authors

  • G. Furdada Universitat de Barcelona

Keywords:

aludes de nieve, riesgo, cambio climático

Abstract

Avalanches are recurrent phenomena. They generate in a variety of nivo-meteorological conditions. There are two main procedures to reduce the avalanche risk, considering apart structural works that should be designed after accurate mapping and complementary studies. The first is temporal prediction, so elaboration and diffusion of avalanche hazard bulletins. These bulletins are very useful for managers of the mountain areas, like ski resort safety responsibles, roads and other infrastructure managers, civil security and emergency managers and mountain users like alpinists and cross country skiers. The second is spatial prediction, based on mapping. People often feel defenceles with respect to avalanches, for instance when a large one impacts against a building or another infrastructure. As a result, legislation about land use planning, similar to the one existing in other European countries, forbidding building inside avalanche areas, is needed in Spain in order to protect the non-informed population. The application of this legislation should be based on good hazard maps. About the climate change, in IPCC 3rd Evaluation Report, several probable climate change scenarios at global scale are presented. In all of them it is concluded that, likely, minimum temperatures will increase, there will be less cold days, freezing days and cold waves in most continental zones. This will produce the 0ºC isotherm elevation towards higher altitudes, so the elevation of the continuous snow cover limit during winters. About global scale precipitation, it can not be concluded whether there will be a positive increase of extreme storm events, so it can not be concluded that there will be a variation of extreme avalanches. About future risk, in the case of the best possible scenario, with a slight increase of temperatures (2-4ºC) and no increase of storms, most probably large magnitude avalanches, reaching valley bottoms and possibly affecting buildings and infrastructures, will continue generating as nowadays. Forest with protection function will probably continue to deteriorate, increasing starting zones of avalanches and producing an increase of the magnitude of some extreme avalanches. Hence the need of good forest management practices. The reduction of future avalanche risk should be based, then, on a good legislation (and good hazard maps), a good forest management and a good lad use planning.

Published

2012-05-09

Issue

Section

Reasearch Papers