Forecasting Rural Depopulation in Spain

Résumé

Population projections and forecasts below the regional level are widely used by governments for spatial planning, including service provision and infrastructure. However, projections and forecasts are often produced only at national and regional scales. We use autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models to forecast the rural population size of the 50 Spanish provinces up to 2040. Our results predict that the rural population in Spain will increase from 7.9 to 8.2 million inhabitants until 2040, but 25 out of 50 provinces will experience rural population shrinkage, particularly those in Northwest Spain. For instance, Ourense, Zamora, and León are forecasted to lose more than 30 % of the rural population. Additionally, depopulation is expected to accelerate across provinces affected by rural population shrinkage.