Depopulation in Rural Areas in Galicia, Spain: Population Projections at the Municipal Level Using the Joinpoint Method and Extrapolative Models (2023-2052)

Abstract

Rural depopulation is currently considered one of the most urgent problems in European rural areas. However, at the international level, there are few countries where projections have been made at the level of small areas, and at the national level, there are few autonomous communities that make projections below the regional level. Taking Galicia as a study area, where depopulation is a widespread phenomenon that characterises many inland rural regions and some on the Atlantic and Cantabrian coasts, the present paper has a double aim. Firstly, to propose a method for the elaboration of population forecasts in sparsely populated areas using joinpoint regression methods and extrapolative models. Secondly, to analyze the results of its application in the most demographically depressed rural municipalities in Galicia, projecting their population in the period 2023-2052. The results of these demographic forecasts reveal that, if past trends continue, 97 % of the municipalities in the most rural sparsely populated areas will continue to lose population in the period 2023-2052.