Land prices with urban sprawl: A model for Spain

Abstract

This paper examines agricultural land prices and the variables that affect them as a way of identifying and explaining the recent price cycle in Spain. The key variables in our panel data model are location and expected farm income as fundamental factors and housing prices and increases in irrigated areas as nonfundamental dependant variables. The price cycle is also related to regional specialization and the impact of integration in the CAP. The novelty of the paper consists in the use of panel data models to identify fundamental factors related to agricultural productivity (expected agricultural income) and location and nonfundamental or speculative factors (housing prices, irrigated areas and demographic changes) using regional data associated with land type.