Las migraciones urbanas hacia el espacio rural castellano y leonés durante la COVID-19

(Artículo de monográfico)

Abstract

Mobility restrictions imposed by pandemic COVID-19 control had provoked a severe disruption in the migratory flows to rural areas. For many city residents, lockdowns created a sense of confinement, which led to a severe disruption of the traditional rural-to-urban migration flows—a shift that garnered media attention. The primary objective of this contribution is to assess the extent of this reversion and to measure the sustainability of population flows to rural municipalities in Castilla y León from urban areas. These flows are quantified and treated as time series, with a SARIMA model applied to estimate changes during the 2020–2021 biennium. The abruptness of the migratory shift since the implementation of lockdowns can be appreciated, as well as the speed at which it returned to a similar path to the pre-pandemic period, although with notable differences among provinces, especially those neighbouring Madrid and Bilbao compared to the rest of the region.