¿Gastar o no gastar más en defensa? Preferencias ciudadanas y sus determinantes en España (1985–2025)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.22325/fes/res.2026.315Palabras clave:
preferencias de gasto, gasto en defensa, opinión pública, determinantes individuales, EspañaResumen
La guerra de Ucrania y las nuevas exigencias presupuestarias de la OTAN han reactivado el debate sobre el gasto en defensa en las democracias europeas, pero persisten interrogantes sobre los factores que condicionan su respaldo social. Este artículo analiza los determinantes individuales de las preferencias ciudadanas sobre el gasto en defensa en España a partir de un diseño longitudinal, basado en treinta y cinco barómetros del Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas que abarcan cuatro décadas de opinión pública (1985–2025). El análisis aplica tres modelos logit ordinales para estimar el efecto de variables sociodemográficas, ideológicas y culturales. Los resultados muestran que la ideología constituye el predictor más sólido, seguida de la religiosidad y el nivel educativo, mientras que el sexo y la situación económica subjetiva presentan efectos limitados. Estos hallazgos indican que las preferencias sobre el gasto en defensa se estructuran principalmente en torno a orientaciones ideológicas y valorativas, más que a factores de posición social, lo que contribuye a su estabilidad y diferencia esta política de otras áreas de gasto público.
Citas
Agresti, A. (2010). Analysis of ordinal categorical data. Wiley.
Addario, G. (2025). Security threats and military spending: New dimensions of old political divisions. En British Social Attitudes: The 42nd Report. NCSR.
Almond, G. A. (1950). The American people and foreign policy. Praeger.
Bansak, K., Bechtel, M.M., Hainmueller, J., y Margalit, Y. (2021). Why austerity? The mass politics of a contested policy. American Political Science Review, 115(2),486–505. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055420001136
Bartels, L. M. (1994). The American public’s defense spending preferences in the post–cold war era. Public Opinion Quarterly,58(4), 479-508. https://doi.org/10.1086/269444
Bartle, J., Bosch, A., y Orriols, L. (2020). The policy mood in Spain: The thermostat in a warm climate,1978–2017. European Political Science Review, 12(2),133-153. https://doi.org/10.1017/S175577392000003X
Baumgartner, J. C., Francia, P. L., y Morris, J. S. (2008). A clash of civilizations? The influence of religion on public opinion of U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East. Political Research Quarterly, 61(2),171-179. https://doi.org/10.1177/1065912907307288
Bolouri, A., Lohse, T., y Qari, S. (2025). Interdependent preferences for financing and providing public goods—The case of national defense. Kyklos, 78, 807-821. https://doi.org/10.1111/kykl.12442
Bonica, A. (2015). Measuring public spending preferences using an interactive budgeting questionnaire. Research & Politics, 2(2). https://doi.org/10.1177/2053168015586471
Brambor, T., Clark, W.R., y Golder, M. (2006). Understanding interaction models: Improving empirical analyses. Political Analysis, 14(1), 63-82. https://doi.org/10.1093/pan/mpi014
Branham, J. A., y Jessee, S. A. (2017). Modeling spending preferences & public policy. Electoral Studies, 49, 155-172. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2017.06.007
Carrillo, E., y Tamayo, M. (2011). La formación de las preferencias de gasto público: Un análisis comparado por políticas públicas. Frontera Norte,23(45), 193-229.
Casas-Mas, B., Menéndez, P. F., Córdoba, A. M., y Echániz, A. (2024). ¿Debemos aumentar el gasto en Defensa? Emociones en el debate público en redes sociales en España. Revista Española de Sociología,33(3), a233. https://doi.org/10.22325/fes/res.2024.233
Carter, J., Ondercin, H. L., y Palmer, G. (2021). Guns, butter, and growth: The consequences of military spending reconsidered. Political Research Quarterly, 74(1),148–165. https://doi.org/10.1177/1065912919890417
Cazcarro, I., Serrano, A., y Sarasa, C. (2024). Valoración del gasto en servicios públicos por la ciudadanía española: sociodemografía, actitudes, valores y economía política. Revista Española de Investigaciones Sociológicas, 185, 43–64. https://doi.org/10.5477/cis/reis.185.43-64
Cicuéndez, R. (2018). El gasto público y los impuestos desde la perspectiva del ciudadano. Análisis de las actitudes y preferencias de los españoles. INAP.
Cicuéndez, R. (2017). Las preferencias de gasto público de los españoles: ¿interés propio o valores? Revista Española de Investigaciones Sociológicas, (160), 19-38. https://doi.org/10.5477/cis/reis.160.19
Clements, B. (2019). British public opinion on foreign and defence policy 1945–2017. Routledge.
Corman, J., Harris, K., Levin, D., Schulte, J., y Shanks, B. (2015). Support for defense and military spending. Public Opinion Quarterly, 79(1), 166-180. https://doi.org/10.1093/poq/nfu091
DiGiuseppe, M., Aspide, A., y Becker, J. (2024). Threats and the public constraint on military spending. British Journal of Political Science, 54(3),649-666. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123423000443
Eichenberg, R. C. (2016). Public opinion on foreign policy issues. Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Politics. https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.013.78
Eichenberg, R. C., y Stoll, R. J. (2003). Representing Defense: Democratic control of the defense budget. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 47(4),399-422. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002703254477
Eichenberg, R. C., y Stoll, R. J. (2011). Gender difference or parallel publics? The dynamics of defense spending opinions in the United States,1965–2007. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 56(2),331-348. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002711420983
Eichenberg, R. C., y Stoll, R.J. (2017). The Acceptability of war and support for defense spending: Evidence from fourteen democracies, 2004–2013. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 61(4),788-813. https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027156007
Eichenberg, R. C., Lizotte, M. K., y Stoll, R. J. (2022). Socialized to safety? The origins of gender difference in personal security dispositions. Political Psychology, 43(2), 221-235. https://doi.org/10.1111/pops.12748
Eismeier, T. (1982). Public preferences about government spending: Partisan, social, and attitudinal sources of policy differences. Political Behavior, 4(2), 133-145. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00987185
Ecer, S., y Veasey, N.J. (2015). The shifting determinants of defense spending preferences between 1980 and 2008. Defence and Peace Economics, 26(1), 75-88. https://doi.org/10.1080/10242694.2013.848578
Fay, E.M.(2020). Individual and contextual influences on public support for military spending in NATO. Defence and Peace Economics,31(7),762-785. https://doi.org/10.1080/10242694.2019.1668236
Fitzsimmons, S., Craigie, A., y Bodet, M.A. (2014). Canadian public opinion about the military: Assessing the influences on attitudes toward defence spending and participation in overseas combat operations. Canadian Journal of Political Science,47(3),503-518. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0008423914000754
Foyle, D. (2017). Public Opinion and Foreign Policy. Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Politics. https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.013.472
Gelpi, C. (2023). Public opinion and the conduct of foreign policy. En D. Reiter (Ed.), Understanding War and Peace (pp. 114-145). Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009127721
Genini, D. (2025). How the war in Ukraine has transformed the EU’s Common security and defense policy. Yearbook of European Law. Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/yel/yeaf003
González, C., y Martínez, J. P.(2024). Barómetro del Real Instituto Elcano: Resultados de marzo-abril de 2024. Real Instituto Elcano.
Hart, L., Häggblom, E., y Pulkka, A.-T.(2023). Gender and generation differences in Finnish defense policy opinions 2000–2020. Scandinavian Journal of Military Studies, 6(1),182-197. https://doi.org/10.31374/sjms.197
Hartley, K. (2012). The economics of defense policy: A new perspective. Routledge.
Holsti, O. R. (2004). Public opinion and American foreign policy. University of Michigan Press.
Jentleson, B. W. (1992). The pretty prudent public: Post-Vietnam American opinion on the use of military force. International Studies Quarterly,36(1), 49-74. https://doi.org/10.2307/2600916
Kertzer, J. D. y Zeitzoff, T. (2017). A Bottom-up theory of public opinion about foreign policy. American Journal of Political Science,61(3),543-558. https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12314
Knopf, J. W. (1998). How rational is ‘the rational public’? Evidence from U.S. public opinion on military spending. Journal of Conflict Resolution,42(5),544-571. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002798042005002
Kreps, S. E. (2019). Legality and legitimacy in American military interventions. Presidential Studies Quarterly, 49(3), 551-580. https://doi.org/10.1111/psq.12576
Lee, H.-S. (2024). Inequality and public opinion on military spending in the United States. World Affairs,187(4),448-461. https://doi.org/10.1002/waf2.12049
Leal, D. L. (2005). American public opinion toward the military: Differences by race, gender, and class? Armed Forces & Society,32(1),123-138. https://doi.org/10.1177/0095327X05278168
Mader, M., y Schoen, H. (2023). No Zeitenwende (yet): Early assessment of German public opinion toward foreign and defense policy after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Politische Vierteljahresschrift,64(2),525-547. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11615-023-00463-5
Mader, M. (2024). Increased support for collective defence in times of threat: European Public opinion before and after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Policy Studies, 45(3-4),402-422. https://doi.org/10.1080/01442872.2024.2302441
Martínez, R. (2020). The Spanish armed forces. En D. Muro, e I. Lago (eds.), The Oxford Handbook of Spanish Politics (pp. 276-296). Oxford University Press.
Mouritzen, P. E. (1987). The demanding citizen: Driven by policy, self-interest or ideology? European Journal of Political Research, 15(4), 417-435. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-6765.1987.tb00885.x
Mueller, J. (1973). War, presidents and public opinion. Wiley.
Noelle-Neumann, E. (1974). The spiral of silence a theory of public opinion. Journal of Communication, 24(2), 43-51. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1460-2466.1974.tb00367.x
Page, B. I., y Shapiro, R. Y.(1992). The rational public: Fifty years of trends in Americans' policy preferences. University of Chicago Press.
Qari, S., Börger, T., Lohse, T., y Meyerhoff, J. (2024). The value of national defense: Assessing public preferences for defense policy options. European Journal of Political Economy, 85, 102595. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102595
Remiro, L., Calatrava, A., Bueno, A., y Martínez, R.(2024). Political culture and defence policy: A model of five-subtypes to explain the Spanish defence political culture. European Politics and Society,25(5),827-848. https://doi.org/10.1080/23745118.2024.2324888
Richter, F., y Safra, L. (2026). Public perceptions of defence policy in times of crisis: Evidence from France during the Ukraine war. Journal of European Public Policy, 33(1), 238-257. https://doi.org/10.1080/13501763.2025.2488354
Roy, O. (2019). Religious sources of defence-spending attitudes in the United States and the case of evangelical distinctiveness. Politics, Religion & Ideology,20(3),301-321. https://doi.org/10.1080/21567689.2019.1656072
Sacchi, S., Buzzelli, G., y de la Porte, C. (2026). ‘Guns versus butter’ in public opinion: The politicization of the warfare-welfare trade-off. Journal of European Public Policy, 33(4), 1199-1225. https://doi.org/10.1080/13501763.2025.2534663
Shapiro, R. Y., y Page, B. I. (1988). Foreign policy and the rational public. Journal of Conflict Resolution,32(2),211-247. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002788032002001
Simon, C. A., y Lovrich, N. P. (2010). Citizen Support for military expenditures: A longitudinal analysis of U.S. public opinion,1999–2002. Armed Forces & Society,36(3),454-480. https://doi.org/10.1177/0095327X09339899
Simon, C.A., Lovrich, N.P., Liu, B., y Wei, Y. D. (2018). Citizen support for military expenditure post–9/11. Armed Forces & Society, 44(4), 688-706. https://doi.org/10.1177/0095327X17741462
Soroka, S. N., y Wlezien, C. (2010). Degrees of democracy: Politics, public opinion, and policy. Cambridge University Press.
Torres-Reyna, O., y Shapiro, R. Y. (2002). The polls—trends: Defense and the military. Public Opinion Quarterly,66(2), 279-295. https://www.jstor.org/stable/3078683
Wenzelburger, G., y Böller, F. (2020). Bomb or build? How party ideologies affect the balance of foreign aid and defence spending. British Journal of Politics and International Relations,22(1),3-19. https://doi.org/10.1177/1369148119883651
Williams, L.K. (2019). Guns Yield Butter? An Exploration of defense spending preferences. Journal of Conflict Resolution,63(5),1193-1221. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002718785969
Descargas
Publicado
Cómo citar
Número
Sección
Licencia
Derechos de autor 2026 Ruth Cicuéndez Santamaría
Esta obra está bajo una licencia internacional Creative Commons Atribución-NoComercial 4.0.
Todas las publicaciones de la Revista Española de Sociología se realizarán bajo una licencia abierta Creative Commons de Reconocimiento 4.0 Internacional (CC BY 4.0). Dicha licencia establece que los autores son los poseedores de los derechos de propiedad intelectual de sus trabajos, que pueden redistribuirse a cambio de un reconocimiento adecuado. Para más información de la licencia Creative Commons, consultar aquí.
Una vez aceptado un artículo para su publicación, la Revista Española de Sociología solicitará al denominado "autor para la correspondencia" la aceptación de una licencia obligatoria Creative Commons incluida en un acuerdo o contrato de publicación.
