A Conceptual Model to Measure Football Player’s Market Value. A Proposal by means of an Analytic Hierarchy Process. [Un modelo conceptual para medir el valor de mercado de los futbolistas. Una propuesta a través de un proceso analítico jerárquico].

Autores/as

  • Carlos Poza Universidad Francisco de Vitoria

Palabras clave:

football player, valuation, market value, analytic hierarchy process (AHP), Jugador de fútbol, valoración, valor de mercado, Proceso Analítico Jerárquico.

Resumen

Abstrac

The aim of this article is to propose a conceptual model to estimate football players’ market value, particularly in the position of forward. The model has been constructed by means of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the participation of 26 football experts from the Spanish Leagues. The model is composed of three kinds of primary attributes: sports variables, personal skills variables and professional variables. Within each primary attribute, there are a range of 6-10 variables whose weights have been calculated thanks to the football experts’ participation. The main results show that the sport variable is the most important factor to determine the market value, closely followed by personal skills. Furthermore, goals per match, competitiveness and contract duration are the most important directly observed variables to explain the forwards’ market value. Notwithstanding, there are other tangible and non-tangible factors that we should consider in order to improve the valuation accuracy.

Resumen

El objetivo de este artículo es proponer un modelo conceptual para estimar el valor de mercado de los jugadores de fútbol, en particular de los delanteros. El modelo se ha construido a través de un Proceso Analítico Jerárquico y la participación de 26 expertos en fútbol de las Ligas españolas. El modelo se compone de tres atributos: variables deportivas, variables de habilidades personales y variables profesionales. Dentro de cada atributo, hay un rango de 6-10 variables cuyas ponderaciones se han calculado gracias a la participación de los expertos en fútbol. Los principales resultados muestran que la variable deportiva es el factor más importante para determinar el valor de mercado, seguido de cerca por las habilidades personales. Además, los objetivos por partido, la competitividad y la duración del contrato son las variables directamente observables más importantes para explicar el valor de mercado de los delanteros. No obstante, hay otros factores tangibles e intangibles que debemos tener en cuenta para mejorar la precisión de la valoración.

https://doi.org/10.5232/ricyde2020.05903

References/referencias

Arrow, K., and Raynaud, H. (1986). Social Choice and Multicriterion Decision-Making. MIT Press Books, The MIT Press.

Aznar, J., & Guijarro, F. (2012). Nuevos métodos de valoración: modelos multicriterio. Editorial Universidad Politécnica de Valencia.

Bertaux, D. (1981). From the life-history approach to the transformation of sociological practice. In Daniel Bertaux (Ed.), Biography and society: The life history approach in the social sciences (pp.29-45). London: Sage.

Bhushan, N., & Rai, K. (2004). Strategic Decision Making. Applying the Analytics Hierarchy Process. Springer.

Bollen, K. A., & Diamantopoulos, A. (2015). In defense of causal-formative indicators: A minority report. Psychological Methods, 22(3): 581–596.
https://doi.org/10.1037/met0000056

Charmaz, K. (2006). Constructing grounded theory: A practical guide through qualitative analysis. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.

Dobson, S., & Gerrard, B. (1999). The Determination of Player Transfer Fees in English Professional Soccer. Journal of Sport Management, 13(4), 259-279.

Esic (2016). Modelo Esic de valoración de futbolistas. Esic Business Marketing School. Available in:
http://www.Esic.edu/landing/valoracionfutbolistas/ (Date: 11/12/18).

Frick, B. (2011). Performance, salaries, and contract length: empirical evidence from German soccer. International Journal of Sport Finance, 6(2), 87-118.

Fried, E. I. (2017). What are psychological constructs? On the nature and statistical modelling of emotions, intelligence, personality traits and mental disorders. Health Psychology Review, 11(2), 130-134.
https://doi.org/10.1080/17437199.2017.1306718

Green, J., & Thorogood, N.  (2009).  Qualitative methods for health research. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.

Guyon, H. (2018). The Fallacy of the Theoretical Meaning of Formative Constructs. Frontiers in Psychology.
https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2018.00179

Hamilton, H. (2012). What determines transfer values in football? Football Business Analytics, Paper Discussions. Soccermetrics Research. Available in: 
https://www.soccermetrics.net/paper-discussions/what-determines-transfer-values-in-football (Date: 02/11/18).

Harwood, C., & Anderson, R. (2015). Coaching Psychological Skills in Youth Football: Developing The 5Cs. Bennion Kearny.

Herm, S.; Callsen-Bracker, H. M., & Kreis, H. (2014). When the crowd evaluates soccer players’ market values: Accuracy and evaluation attributes of an online community. Sport Management Review, 17(4), 484-492.

Idson, T., & Kahane, L.H. (2000). Team Effects on Compensation: An Application to Salary Determination in the National Hockey League. Economic Inquiry, 38(2), 345–357.
 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1465-7295.2000.tb00022.x

Kahn, L. (2000). The sports business as a labor market laboratory. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 14(3), 75–94.
https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.14.3.75   

Lazear, E.P., & Shaw, K.H. (2007). Personnel Economics: The Economist`s View of Human Resources. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 21(4), 91-114.

Majewski, S. (2016). Identification of Factors Determining Market Value of the Most Valuable Football Players. Journal of Management and Business Administration, 24(3), 91-104. September 2016.
https://doi.org/10.7206/jmba.ce.2450-7814.177

Munkhaugen Gulbrandsen, A., & Munkhaugen Gulbrandsen, Ch. (2011). Valuation of Football Players. A Complete Pricing Framework. Norges Handelsholyskole. Bergen.     Available in:
https://brage.bibsys.no/xmlui/handle/11250/169019 (Date: 01/03/2019)

Opta (2019):
https://www.optasports.com/. Last review: August 2019.

Petrovic, A.; Koprivica, V., & Bokan, B. (2017). Quantitative, qualitative and mixed research in sport science: a methodological report. South African Journal for Research in Sport, Physical Education and Recreation, 39(2), 181-197.

Saaty, R. W. (1987). The analytic hierarchy process—what it is and how it is used. Mathematical Modelling. 9(3–5), 161-176.
https://doi.org/10.1016/0270-0255(87)90473-8

Simon, H. (1955). A Behavioral Model of Rational Choice. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 69(1), 99-118.
https://doi.org/10.2307/1884852  

Transfermarket (2019):
https://www.transfermarkt.es/. Last review: August 2019.

Treble, J. G. (2001). Productivity and effort: The labor-supply decisions of late Victorian coalminers. The Journal of Economic History, 61(2), 414-438.

Vaidya, O., & Kumar, S. (2006). Analytic Hierarchy Process: An Overview of Applications. European Journal of Operational Research, 169(1), 1–29.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2004.04.028     

Vargas, L. G. (1990). An overview of the Analytic Hierarchy Process and its applications. European Journal of Operational Research, 48(1), 2-8. USA.
https://doi.org/10.1016/0377-2217(90)90056-H

Wicker, P.; Prinz, J.; Weimar, D.; Deutscher, C., & Upman, T. (2013). No Pain, No Gain: Effort and Productivity in Professional Soccer. International Journal of Sport Finance, 8(2), 124-139.

Yuang, H. (2015). Predicting Market Value of Soccer Players Using Linear Modeling Techniques. University of California, Berkeley. Unpublished document.


Publicado

2019-09-18

Número

Sección

Artículos/articles