Recent approaches to model the risk of storm and fire

  • Marc Hanewinkel Forest Research Institute of Baden-Wuerttemberg
  • H. Peltola School of Forest Sciences. Joensuu. FInland
  • P. Soares Instituto Superior de Agronomia. Lisboa. Portugal
  • J. R. González-Olabarria CTFC. Solsona. Spain
Keywords: storm risk, fire risk, empirical modelling, mechanistic modelling, growth simulators


The aim of this paper is to discuss the different recently developed empirical and mechanistic modelling approaches for assessing the risk of wind and fire damage to forests. Additionally the work will explore possible ways to integrate these approaches, including feedback mechanisms, into growth and yield models and decision support tools used in forestry. The integration of mechanistic and empirical storm risk models, as well as an empirical/mechanistic fire risk model into growth simulators is demonstrated and future challenges and options for risk modelling and for creating complex decision support tools, including growth simulators, meteorological components and risk modules, are discussed.
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