NE_2014_13: Farmer’s elicited water response function for intensive olives according subjective probabilities

Resumen

This research analyzes the subjective crop yield-water  relationship. The probability density for water response functions (PDF) is elicited from a series of interviews carried out on a wide group of farmers. The elicitation technique is based upon the Triangular distribution. Farmers who were interviewed gave both estimates for point crop yield (mean, highest possible, most frequent and lowest possible) as a function of water supply (full irrigation, 'normal' deficit  irrigation and low dose deficit irrigation). Model presented here illustrates the possibility of implementing simple decision support models to help farmers to manage water considering the objectives of maximizing profit and minimizing risk.